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In this manuscript, former One Virology PhD student Dr Emma Fairbanks combined features of existing models to develop a novel model for vectorial capacity that considers both climate and vector control. Vectorial capacity is a concept used to estimate the potential ability of an insect vector to transmit a pathogen to a susceptible host population.
The predicted cumulative vectorial capacities for bluetongue virus (BTV) in cattle, Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in cattle, African horse sickness virus (AHSV) in horses, and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) in deer have all increased in the UK since 1973 due to climate change. Worryingly, as outbreaks of the closely related BTV have already occurred in the UK and with recent approval for direct importation of horses from South African to Europe to resume, cumulative vectorial capacities are comparable for AHSV and BTV. However, by showing that strategic use of insecticide-treated netting, even at low coverage levels, can substantially reduce the transmission potential of AHSV, the modelling offers some comfort. The model also predicted that the vectorial capacity of EHDV only recently peaked above zero – in line with the first reported case of EHDV in Europe in 2022.
The predicted cumulative vectorial capacities for bluetongue virus (BTV) in cattle, Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in cattle, African horse sickness virus (AHSV) in horses, and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) in deer have all increased in the UK since 1973 due to climate change. Worryingly, as outbreaks of the closely related BTV have already occurred in the UK and with recent approval for direct importation of horses from South African to Europe to resume, cumulative vectorial capacities are comparable for AHSV and BTV. However, by showing that strategic use of insecticide-treated netting, even at low coverage levels, can substantially reduce the transmission potential of AHSV, the modelling offers some comfort. The model also predicted that the vectorial capacity of EHDV only recently peaked above zero – in line with the first reported case of EHDV in Europe in 2022.
Other recent papers from the group include:
Multiple novel caliciviruses identified from stoats (Mustela erminea) in the United Kingdom.
Hinds J, Apaa T, Parry RH, Withers AJ, MacKenzie L, Staley C, Morrison J, Bennett M, Bremner-Harrison S, Chadwick EA, Hailer F, Harrison SWR, Lambin X, Loose M, Mathews F, Tarlinton R, Blanchard A. Access Microbiol. 2024 Jul 9;6(7):000813.v4. doi: 10.1099/acmi.0.000813.v4.
Genetic and antigenic characterization of two diarrhoeicdominant rotavirus A genotypes G3P[12] and G14P[12] circulating in the global equine population.
Uprety T, Soni S, Sreenivasan C, Hause BM, Naveed A, Ni S, Graves AJ, Morrow JK, Meade N, Mellits KH, Adam E, Kennedy MA, Wang D, Li F.J Gen Virol. 2024 Aug;105(8):002016. doi: 10.1099/jgv.0.002016.
Multiple novel caliciviruses identified from stoats (Mustela erminea) in the United Kingdom.
Hinds J, Apaa T, Parry RH, Withers AJ, MacKenzie L, Staley C, Morrison J, Bennett M, Bremner-Harrison S, Chadwick EA, Hailer F, Harrison SWR, Lambin X, Loose M, Mathews F, Tarlinton R, Blanchard A. Access Microbiol. 2024 Jul 9;6(7):000813.v4. doi: 10.1099/acmi.0.000813.v4.
Genetic and antigenic characterization of two diarrhoeicdominant rotavirus A genotypes G3P[12] and G14P[12] circulating in the global equine population.
Uprety T, Soni S, Sreenivasan C, Hause BM, Naveed A, Ni S, Graves AJ, Morrow JK, Meade N, Mellits KH, Adam E, Kennedy MA, Wang D, Li F.J Gen Virol. 2024 Aug;105(8):002016. doi: 10.1099/jgv.0.002016.